The Housing Market Hangs its Hopes on Healey

The housing market isn't actually broken. Not the way that you might assume it is from regular market commentary and even national and local news stories.

Nevertheless, it does feel far from relaxed.

The reality is that people continue to move home. Properties are selling to buyers who either come armed with cash or who have the ability to borrow, and that includes buy to let purchases.

Almost 33,000 buy-to-let mortgages were issued over the course of the first two quarters in 2026, which are the most up to date figures we have at the moment, and that number was only around a thousand fewer than during the course of the same period in 2025 – a decline of only 3%, which is contrary to much of the market commentary.

On top of that, figures show almost 80,000 buy-to-let remortgages, compared to around 71,000 in the first half of 2025 – an increase of 10%. It suggests that at the time when the Renters’ Rights Act kicked in, May 1 2026, more existing landlords were actively refinancing and, we can reasonably assume, committing to their portfolios than was at least evident the previous year.

This despite so much commentary hinting at the imminent collapse of the lettings sector, induced by the introduction of the Renters’ Rights Act.

But none of that is to suggest that things aren’t a little tricky.

Barely a day goes by (in fact, perhaps not even a single day goes by) when I am not dealing with one issue or another in our business, brought on by a concern, a misunderstanding, or the outright effects of tougher market conditions, uncertainty, and this changing legislative landscape.

But it is, in the same breath, entirely evident that people continue to move for all the reasons they always have: work, relationships, growing families, schools, retirement and changing circumstances. They continue to do so, and they will continue to continue to do so. And that means, good rental properties will continue to be in demand.

Let’s examine what the data tells us about residential sales too, though, because whilst that is not something that we actively engage in at Your Home Managed, instead working with a local sales agent to service our customers, it is obviously something that sets the tone of the market.

Latest figures released by HMRC show seasonally adjusted residential transactions in August running around 2% below the same month last year. House price growth – often rather simplistically used as the barometer of whether the property market is healthy – has been subdued.

The latest official UK House Price Index recorded annual growth of just 0.9% in August, down from 1.4% in July, both of which in any case are therefore below the prevailing rate of inflation. In real terms, it means that property values can be said to have fallen by comparison to the mean value of everything else, and also compared to wages, which – encouragingly – have grown.

And more recently, against a backdrop of rising mortgage rates and a continued or perhaps even a growing sense of uncertainty, there has been little sign of the traditional autumn bounce that the property market would normally hope to see at this time of year.

Rightmove's October figures show asking prices rising by 1%, below the typical 1.3% October increase, with higher borrowing costs increasingly feeding through into buyer affordability.

Another statistic that is worth bearing in mind, as it captures the current economic mood, comes from Moneyfacts.

Mortgage products are currently available for just 13 days before being withdrawn or replaced. This is a market total figure, including buy-to-let mortgage products.

This number had dropped to as low as 8 days earlier this year, so that should be noted – but at the same time, we need to acknowledge that it is down from 14 days in September.

Moneyfacts’ own commentary describes borrowers and brokers as navigating one of the most challenging mortgage markets in modern times. Swap rates have been moving quickly, and lenders have consequently been repricing products just as quickly.

And now, into this tableau, we have the Autumn Budget.

What do we know about what’s coming in the Budget 2026?

Next week, 28 October 2026, will see John Healey deliver his first Budget as Chancellor, and property has inevitably featured heavily in the speculation surrounding it.

We had heard suggestions of higher Capital Gains Tax, changes to the new high-value property surcharge – inevitably dubbed the "mansion tax" – Stamp Duty reform, further taxation affecting landlords and additional support for first-time buyers.

With a week to go, however, it now seems many of those possibilities have fallen away.

The Financial Times reported earlier this week that the Chancellor has ruled out an increase in Capital Gains Tax, something that will come as a relief to landlords, although there has been no official government statement to confirm details of this.

He has also decided against reducing the threshold for the forthcoming high-value property surcharge from £2 million to £1.5 million – and again, nothing has been confirmed formally, but once again – certainly here in South London – that comes as a relief to many property owners, landlords included.

Major Stamp Duty reform also appears unlikely. It has also been ruled out previously – but there was speculation following Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party Conference address, when she committed to abolishing stamp duty were she to become prime minister in the future, that the government might U-turn on this – a ‘rabbit out of the hat’ moment perhaps.

It seems unlikely to us. That may disappoint parts of the property industry. Transaction taxes do not stop people moving home or investing in buy to let properties altogether, but they unquestionably add to the cost of doing so – particularly for people considering a discretionary move such as downsizing – and that can stifle the number of people who do consider moving at any one time, reducing the pool of available properties for all buyers, investors included.

If the ambition is to encourage greater mobility within the housing market, there is a legitimate discussion to be had about taxing the act of moving home – particularly as heavily as it is now.

For now, though, it does appear that discussion will have to wait.

Hope for first-time buyers

One significant housing announcement we do know is coming, and absolutely expect to hear more about next week, is the Your First Home scheme.

The Government has already confirmed this initiative will allow eligible first-time buyers purchasing new-build properties in England to do so with deposits potentially as low as 2.5%, supported by a government-backed equity loan of up to 20%.

The Budget is expected to provide the important detail: income limits, possibly regional property price caps, implementation dates and exactly how participating developers will contribute towards the scheme.

There is plenty to welcome in helping people who can afford monthly mortgage payments but struggle to accumulate a large deposit, but there are questions we have to ask about how far the benefit travels.

As currently proposed, Your First Home applies to new-build homes. That provides a direct stimulus to housebuilders, with Bellway already suggesting the scheme could increase its volumes by around 10%.

Nevertheless, supporting purchases of newly constructed homes is not quite the same thing as stimulating transactions throughout the existing housing market.

A first-time buyer purchasing an existing property is often what we need to kick-start a chain. They make their offer, the seller buys another property, that seller moves elsewhere, and several transactions may ultimately follow.

We don’t get that when a first-time buyer purchases a newly built home.

Your First Home may prove valuable, but its impact will depend heavily on the detail announced next week, and this is something we will be watching.

For landlords, no news may be good news

Landlords probably aren't going into this Budget expecting a lot – but at least some of their fears may be assuaged, especially after several years of tax and regulatory change. Many would be happy to settle for some certainty.

The apparent decision not to increase Capital Gains Tax will be welcomed by property investors considering selling assets, while the absence, so far, of another major landlord-specific tax measure may come as something of a relief.

For landlords as much as anyone in this market, stability has a value of its own. The private rented sector is heavily regulated, and landlords have spent much of this year adapting to significant changes under the Renters’ Rights Act, with further registration requirements perhaps still to come, as announced by Angela Rayner recently.

Good landlords do not oppose regulation. Far from it. But every additional cost or layer of uncertainty has to be absorbed somewhere, and ultimately feeds into decisions about whether landlords continue investing, improve existing rental properties, expand their portfolios or decide that the numbers simply no longer work.

In a sector that provides homes for large numbers of young professionals and families including working parents who keep the cogs and gears of the economy turning, policymakers should be careful not to mistake resilience for limitless capacity.

Which brings us to what may ultimately prove to be the most important property story of this Budget.

The most important housing announcement might not concern housing at all

The Chancellor can’t stand at the dispatch box and instruct lenders to reduce their mortgage rates.

But what happens in Westminster on 28 October might just influence the conditions in which mortgages are priced.

Fixed mortgage rates are influenced heavily by swap rates and lenders' own funding costs. Those, in turn, are affected by expectations around inflation, future interest rates and government borrowing.

Financial-market confidence is important. Healey himself has repeatedly stressed fiscal discipline ahead of the Budget – something that should surprise nobody. And notably, as the FT reports, any new measures are expected to be paid for through taxation or spending decisions rather than additional borrowing.

Reuters' analysis identifies gilt-market confidence as one of the principal tests the Chancellor faces next week – and it is probably also time to mention the most recent inflation announcement, which has seen that figure rise again, to 3.5%.

All that said, the broader message from the Treasury appears to be caution rather than radicalism. "Steady as she goes," for want of a better turn of phrase.

And for the property market, that might not be a bad thing.

Because a market in which mortgage products currently have an average shelf life of just 13 days speaks to uncertainty. What it needs is a bit of stability, because with stability comes confidence.

Confidence from buyers that the mortgage they can afford today will still broadly resemble the mortgage available next month.

Confidence from sellers that there are buyers able and willing to proceed.

Confidence from landlords and investors that the rules will not continually change underneath them.

Confidence from financial markets that the Government has its sums under control.

Nobody in this industry seriously expects John Healey to fix the housing market in one Budget – anyone who says otherwise is either fooling themselves, or trying to fool you.

That does not mean we won’t, as an industry, be expecting to see a plan taking shape at least, within the fiscal decisions he presents next Wednesday.

A final thought

I will refer back to my opening statement. Properties are still selling and being let out, and affordability, whilst no doubt stretched, is still being met. But overall purchase activity is slightly reduced and mortgage rates have been rising, which exerts pressure on the market – not least on landlords with buy-to-let mortgages.

Ultimately, the housing market should be careful what it wishes for next Wednesday.

A dramatic rabbit from the hat might grab the headlines – but a credible, sensible Budget, followed by a calmly enthusiastic response from financial markets leading to a bit of stability in mortgage pricing, could ultimately prove to be considerably more valuable.

If that creates an environment for mortgage rates to then begin to move back in the other direction, better still, especially as more landlords seek to remortgage.

Sometimes, "steady as she goes" is exactly what this market needs.